Stonegate Capital Partners has updated its coverage on Aemetis, Inc. (Nasdaq: AMTX) following the company's first quarter 2026 financial results, which show a significant shift from project buildout toward recurring low-carbon fuel monetization. The quarterly report highlights the initial impact of 45Z tax credit recognition and improving renewable natural gas (RNG) economics on Aemetis' financial performance.
Revenue for the first quarter increased 27% year-over-year to $54.6 million, driven by higher sales volumes and the beginning of quarterly 45Z credit recognition. Gross profit improved to $2.8 million from a loss of $5.1 million in the prior year period, while adjusted EBITDA loss narrowed to $1.3 million from a loss of $10.7 million. The key change was the recurring quarterly 45Z recognition tied to current-period production, with $4.0 million recognized across Dairy RNG and California Ethanol following the full-year 2025 catch-up recognized in the fourth quarter of 2025.
Dairy RNG is emerging as the clearest recurring cash flow proof point for Aemetis. RNG volumes increased 55% year-over-year to 110,000 MMBtu, and the company now operates seven California Air Resources Board (CARB) pathways with a negative 380 CI score. As volumes scale, these pathways should materially improve Low Carbon Fuel Standard (LCFS) credit capture, further boosting revenue. The company's RNG operations are becoming a reliable source of cash flow, supported by long-term offtake agreements and favorable regulatory frameworks.
The Keyes MVR (Membrane Vapor Recovery) project remains the largest near-term EBITDA inflection catalyst. Construction is advancing toward completion in 2026, and once operational, the MVR system is expected to displace approximately 80% of fossil natural gas use at the Keyes ethanol plant. This would add an estimated $32 million of annual cash flow by reducing natural gas costs and generating additional environmental credits. The project represents a significant step in Aemetis' strategy to decarbonize its operations and enhance profitability.
Overall, the first quarter results demonstrate that Aemetis is moving from narrative to reported earnings, with credit monetization beginning to appear in financial statements. The combination of growing Dairy RNG volumes, 45Z tax credit recognition, and the impending completion of the Keyes MVR project positions the company for continued improvement in financial performance. Stonegate Capital Partners views these developments as reinforcing the investment thesis for Aemetis as a leader in low-carbon fuel production.
For more details, the full announcement is available here.