Two years after Tropical Storm Helene struck Western North Carolina, new data reveals that Buncombe County has undergone the most dramatic reversal in domestic migration of any large county in the United States. According to an analysis by Asheville-based Dry Ridge Moving, the county saw its net domestic migration plummet from an inflow of 1,768 people in the year before the storm to an outflow of 2,056 in the year after—a swing of 13.7 net movers per 1,000 residents. This shift left Buncombe with 1,810 fewer residents in July 2025 than a year earlier, marking the county's first annual population decline since at least 2000.
The implications extend beyond population numbers. The housing market has softened considerably: active home listings more than doubled from 886 in August 2024 to 1,799 in August 2026, while the median days on market rose from 54 to 78. Zillow's typical home value in Buncombe fell 5.6 percent between September 2024 and July 2026, even as national home values increased 1.1 percent. The workforce has also contracted; the civilian labor force was 5.8 percent smaller in July 2026 than two years prior, compared to a 1.2 percent decline statewide.
While the broader region of 23 Helene-declared counties continued to grow, net domestic migration there fell 54.5 percent, indicating that the storm's effects rippled across Western North Carolina. The full study, available on the Dry Ridge Moving website, notes that Census estimates are subject to revision and may not fully capture temporary displacement. The next county population estimates, expected in spring 2027, will show whether this migration reversal persists.
